The perfect Phillies-Rays trade to acquire a dynamic outfield target by the deadline
Which prospect would have to return the opposite way if the Rays were able to provide the Phillies with the outfield help they need?
One of the Philadelphia Phillies’ possible trade targets is actually lurking over in the AL East, as they attempt to strengthen their outfield come trade deadline day. The Phillies ought to give Tampa Bay Rays great player Randy Arozarena some serious thought. Philadelphia was recently ranked as one of the best fits for the six-year veteran by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
The perfect Phillies-Rays trade to acquire a dynamic outfield target by the deadline
What then would the Phillies need to do to sign the former AL Rookie of the Year and All-Star? Well, according to Baseball Trade Values, it may call for right-handed pitcher Mick Abel, one of Philadelphia’s best prospects.
Using the idea of surplus value, Baseball Trade Values’ trade simulator determines that the Phillies pitching prospect and Rays outfielder would be traded for around the same amount of money. If you’re interested, a detailed explanation of the trade values’ calculation may be found.
The Phillies would be getting a major postseason performer in Arozarena. After all, he was the Rays’ equivalent of Mr. October in 2020, when he stormed the MLB scene by joining the team late in August for the stretch run.
That year, he went into beast mode during the postseason, recording 10 home runs and 14 RBI in just 20 games. While leading the unexpected Rays club to the World Series, he was named ALCS MVP. Arozarena has played in 33 postseason games during his career, hitting.336 with a 1.104 OPS, 23 runs scored, five doubles, 11 home runs, and 17 RBI.
However, Arorazena is also capable of outstanding play in the regular season. Throughout his MLB career, he has averaged almost 89 runs scored, 23 home runs, 80 RBI, 26 stolen bases, and a.782 OPS while hitting a solid.255.
He had quite the slump to begin the season this year, batting almost.160 in the first two months. But since then, he has improved his season. He has amassed a strong.284 batting average, a.859 OPS, three home runs, and ten RBI in his previous 31 games. Thus, all indications suggest that he will resume his typical productive self.
Arozarena may not be a Gold Glove winner, but he can hold his own defensively, as he hasn’t made an error since the 2022 campaign.
In spite of his difficulties, Mick Abel is still valuable.
As for Abel, the 22-year-old pitching sensation, his 2024 has been forgettable. The Phillies selected him in the first round of the 2020 draft, and his domination and ability to strike out batters let him rise through the minor league ranks with ease.
With the Phillies’ Triple-A club, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, this season, Abel has struggled severely with command, earning a dismal 2-7 record with a 6.58 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 64 1/3 innings pitched in 14 starts, along with 46 walks and 60 strikeouts. Nevertheless, considering his potential, he remains, at least according to MLB Pipeline, the Phillies’ best pitching prospect in their organization outside of Andrew Painter.
It seems sense that the Rays would want to refill their club with another possible front-end of the rotation arm, given how often injuries destroy their starting rotation.
From the stats alone, it appears that the Phillies stand to gain a great deal from the move. But one must keep in mind that the Rays have established a refuge for pitchers and have the ability to develop even the finest pitchers into stars. It’s possible that Abel might thrive in such a setting.
The Phillies would gain a boost in the outfield and the Rays would acquire a powerful arm that may fit into their future rotation, making the transaction more equal than anticipated and possibly leading to a win-win scenario for both teams.
Even with his difficulties and poor play this season, it still seems excessive to use Abel as a trade piece for Arozarena. However, the risk will be well worth it if Arozarena is the missing component needed for the Phillies to win the World Series.
