Back in early July, when the Reds were 41-45 and only a few games out of the NL Wild Card race, club GM Brad Meador stated that the team was not yet ready to commit to a trade deadline plan. Flash forward to now, and they have a 47-53 record after being swept by the Nationals following the All-Star break. According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the team has begun to alert other clubs that it is open to trade with players whose contracts are expiring.
It’s hardly surprising that Cincinnati would limit any sell-off to rental items. After all, the Reds have an exciting core of young talent led by star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and right-hander Hunter Greene that should keep them in the playoff picture in the coming years, but this season has been complicated by injuries to key players such as Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, TJ Friedl, Brandon Williamson, and Graham Ashcraft. By keeping that core of players, as well as seasoned components under longer-term control like as Jonathan India and Jeimer Candelario, the Reds will be in a good position to reload for the 2025 season this winter and make another run at contention.
The Reds’ roster of prospective free agents is very modest, but it includes some intriguing names. Right-hander Frankie Montas, whose $20MM mutual option for 2025 is almost certainly going to be denied, is likely the most well-known player the team might attempt to trade. Right-hander Nick Martinez has a $12MM player option for 2025 and could be made available, while outfielder Austin Slater (who the Reds acquired from San Francisco just two weeks ago), lefty Justin Wilson, and right-handers Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims’ contracts will all expire at the end of the season.
According to Morosi, the Orioles are one among the clubs interested in Cincinnati’s rental pitchers, which include Montas and Martinez. The match between Baltimore and any of those two components is relatively evident, given that the Orioles have lost starters Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to season-ending surgery this year. That leaves them with a patchwork rotation that includes Dean Kremer and Albert Suarez behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez at the front end. The Orioles would benefit from acquiring at least one more playoff-caliber starter, as well as added depth beyond that.
Whether Montas, 31, is a playoff-caliber starter at this juncture in his career is debatable. The righty has struggled with the Reds in 89 innings (18 starts) this season, registering a 4.85 ERA and 5.04 FIP, both of which are nearly 15% lower than the league average. While Montas has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of his 18 starts this season, blowout starts have been common for the righty, with a combined 12 runs allowed in 11 2/3 innings in his previous two outings against the Nationals and the Rockies.
Despite his recent struggles, Montas is not far off from a period of mid-rotation success with the A’s from 2018 to 2022, when he compiled a 3.70 ERA and 3.61 FIP in 99 appearances. With that considered, it’s worth noting that Montas had shoulder surgery in February of last year. His peripherals have changed dramatically after he recovered from surgery. He’s struck out just 18.7% of batters faced after entering 2023 with a lifetime strikeout percentage of 24.3%, and after giving free passes to only 7.8% of opponents until the end of the 2022 season, his walk rate has risen to 10% after the operation. Despite these weaknesses, Montas’ track record as a competent mid-rotation arm may still pique the curiosity of pitching-hungry suitors.
Martinez, on the other hand, may be a better fit for the Orioles. Over the last three seasons with San Diego and Cincinnati, the right-hander has established himself as one of the finest swingmen in the game, and this season, the 33-year-old has a decent 3.88 ERA and an even stronger 3.15 FIP. While his 18.9% walk rate isn’t very impressive, he’s kept walks to just 3% this season while allowing only six home runs in 72 innings. Martinez has been utilized largely in relief this year, despite making five starts for the Reds early in the season and demonstrating the ability to transition between the rotation and bullpen with remarkable ease when in San Diego. The veteran righty would provide pitching depth for the Orioles’ bullpen and rotation down the stretch, likely working out of the rotation for the rest of the regular season before going to the bullpen in the playoffs.
Of course, Baltimore is not the only team that may be interested in the Reds’ potential rentals. The Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, and Padres are among the other teams known to be in the market for starting pitching, while almost every contender is on the lookout for rental bullpen help this time of year and could be interested in either Martinez in relief or a rental bullpen arm like Wilson, Farmer, or Sims.
