Major discussions about the future of the College Football Playoff (CFP) are set to continue this week in Dallas. The 10 FBS commissioners, along with Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua, will convene on Tuesday to address potential changes to the seeding process for the 12-team playoff format set to debut this fall.
The 11-member CFP management committee will deliberate on whether to modify the seeding structure, a decision that could impact which teams receive first-round byes and the automatic $4 million awarded for reaching the quarterfinals.
While much of the focus will be on the 2025 season, conversations about automatic qualification for 2026 and beyond are inevitable. The playoff format is trending toward a 14-team structure, with potential automatic bids including four each for the SEC and Big Ten, two each for the ACC and Big 12, one for the Group of 5, and an at-large spot that could go to Notre Dame.
Influence of the Big Ten and SEC
The Big Ten and SEC, which wield significant influence over the future format starting in 2026, recently held a meeting in New Orleans. However, their commissioners—Tony Petitti (Big Ten) and Greg Sankey (SEC)—declined to specify their preferred playoff model. The idea of automatic qualifiers has sparked debate, with one CFP source warning that it could mark “the beginning of the end of a legitimate national championship.”
Potential Changes to 2024 Seeding
Adjustments to the seeding for the upcoming season could happen but would require unanimous approval. Several sources are skeptical that a consensus will be reached, especially for a change affecting only one season before more significant adjustments take effect in 2026.
Under the current system, the four highest-ranked conference champions receive the top seeds and first-round byes. However, some decision-makers—beyond just the SEC and Big Ten—favor basing seeding on the selection committee’s rankings while still ensuring spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions. This change would allow the top four teams in the rankings to secure byes, regardless of conference affiliation, creating an opening for Notre Dame, which, as an independent, cannot win a league title.
Had this model been in place last season, it would have prevented Mountain West champion Boise State and Big 12 champion Arizona State from securing top-four seeds and first-round byes.
Impact of the SEC-Big Ten Meeting
One immediate outcome of last week’s SEC-Big Ten discussions is that both Sankey and Petitti support revising seeding for 2024. However, they acknowledge that unanimous approval is necessary for any changes to take effect.
Looking ahead to 2026, Sankey downplayed the significance of long-term discussions at this week’s meeting, noting that they would only be a “small part” of the agenda. He also avoided using the term “alignment” when describing the SEC’s relationship with the Big Ten, emphasizing that each league faces different challenges.
Petitti echoed this sentiment, stating that while adjustments for 2025 are still under discussion, the SEC and Big Ten must reach a “consensus” on the format beyond that. He emphasized the importance of securing input from all stakeholders before making final recommendations.
Despite the Big Ten and SEC’s dominant role, other conferences will have a say, and pushback against automatic qualifiers is expected. A CFP source noted that if the ACC and Big 12 align with the SEC and Big Ten on a format, it is likely to be implemented in 2026 and beyond. Even with automatic qualifiers, a selection committee would still be necessary to determine final rankings and at-large bids.
Scheduling Challenges and Playoff Implications
One of the pressing concerns surrounding the playoff format is scheduling. Currently, the SEC plays eight conference games, while other Power Five leagues play nine. This discrepancy impacts the selection committee’s evaluation of strength of schedule, a critical factor in ranking teams.
Variations in scheduling exist even within conferences—Indiana, for example, avoided facing Oregon and Penn State, while SMU did not play Miami or Clemson. A CFP source argued that “everyone’s got to move to nine conference games” to establish consistency in scheduling and rankings.
There is growing speculation that the SEC is closer than ever to expanding to a nine-game conference schedule. However, Sankey wants clarity on the playoff format and how the selection committee will weigh strength of schedule before making a final decision.
He pointed to past precedent, citing the 2014 season when the Big 12’s decision to name TCU and Baylor co-champions led to both teams missing the inaugural four-team playoff. That decision ultimately prompted the Big 12 to reinstate its conference championship game.
As discussions unfold in Dallas, key decisions could reshape the College Footba
ll Playoff landscape for years to come.
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