As of Monday, May 15th, the Cincinnati Reds are 17-23, 7.0 games behind the Brewers. The Pirates have just moved ahead of the Reds, who are 1-9 in their previous ten games. A club with genuine, not speculative, promise and postseason hopes has fallen short.
Now, before we go any further, I don’t believe this squad is dead. I am not calling it a lost season. Doing so on May 15th, with 120 games remaining, does nothing for me. While I won’t encourage the big lady to sing, denying that they are in a poor situation would be ridiculous.
The injuries to Matt McLain and TJ Friedl, as well as Noelvi Marte’s suspension, were always going to have a significant impact on this team and its depth. Losing three regulars is difficult to replace for any organization. But this is the major leagues. Injuries are unavoidable, and no one cares about excuses. Fair? Perhaps not. But this is the reality. The games continue to be played regardless of the names on the jerseys.
Outfield Production Is Not Enough
Cincinnati entered the season with an outfield that had plenty of potential but has yet to produce. Jake Fraley has been productive (.313/.382/.400), although he has missed several games and, as a platoon player, is not in the lineup every day.
Will Benson has not made the progress we all hoped for. While he has shown some power, his strikeout percentage of 39.6% is difficult to accept. He’s not making nearly enough contact to perform at the Reds’ expectations, especially with Friedl out. A 70% zone contact rate does not result in much success.
Spencer Steer, who has also played first, has been impressive at the plate, even with a slump. A 120 wRC+, four home runs, and 11 stolen bases will undoubtedly assist this club. However, his defense need improvement.
Stuart Fairchild’s involvement on this squad, as far as I can tell, was never meant to be so significant. But he doesn’t get a pass because he was forced into action. A 59 wRC+ with three extra base hits is insufficient, even for a bench guy. While I admire his defensive abilities and quickness, they do not compensate for his offensive productivity.
Starting Rotation Has Depth and Talent.
The Reds would be a complete mess without their rotation. Hunter Greene (3.38 ERA/3.38 FIP) continues to improve, with his HR/FB% dropping from 14% to 5.7%. He’s made less hard contact and appears to be the pitcher supporters expected.
Nick Lodolo has returned from injury and looks fantastic. He has a 3.34 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 2.31 walks per nine, and 11.06 strikeouts. His curveball has kept hitters to a.151 batting average and a 49.4% strikeout rate. Couldn’t have asked for a better start to his season.
Frankie Montas, Cincinnati’s Opening Day starter, had a difficult finish to his appearance this weekend but has been reliable when healthy. Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott have also made valuable contributions. Abbott has allowed two or less runs in seven of his eight outings. While we all like to see more than five innings from him, I can’t complain about a five-and-dive that has been fruitful.
Brandon Williamson is still recovering from an injury and might return at some point. Rhett Lowder, the Reds’ best prospect, excelled at High-A and has just been promoted to Double. He has a good chance of making it into this rotation later in the summer.
“Quad-A players” are typically just that.
Every team brings in waiver wire players, career minor leaguers, and others who have not had much success in the past. I don’t blame the Reds for doing this since they need a couple players they can call up momentarily without having to DFA them when a player returns.
Injuries have caused these level players to play a larger part than planned, and output has been low. Nick Martini had an Opening Day moment and helped the Reds win that game. In that one day, he accomplished more than I could have imagined for the entire year. Martini eventually shown why he has hopped around: 39 wRC+, 2.3% walk rate,.177/.200/.329. Bubba Thompson was not trusted to hit, and we now await the destiny of Mike Ford, who has two singles in 16 at-bats.
This is why I pushed for an upgrade to Fairchild. On paper, the Reds didn’t need to fill several starter slots. They were in a position where they could spend money to obtain a higher-level platoon for Benson/Fraley and improve the fourth outfield place. While the free agency market was not robust, a trade may have resulted in this sort of player. Mark Canha was bought for a low price, although it may not have been able to deal with Milwaukee. Free agency is a two-way street, so who knows what happened, but I can’t believe an upgrade wasn’t accessible.
Tyler Stephenson is showing signs of a comeback. The catcher position has been a source of concern this winter. Stephenson’s comeback from injury in ’23 did not resemble the batter we saw in prior seasons. So far, he’s reduced his strikeout rate by 4% while having a greater influence on baseball.Coach now explains what he has learned about the Cincinnati Reds thus far in 2024.
You’d want to see his contact information convert into more hits, but they are at least signals in the right way. With Luke Maile drowning at the plate, Stephenson’s gains are even more significant.
We should also notice his progress behind the scenes. His catcher framing runs have increased from -9 previous season to 1 this season. Blocking data has also improved, and he appears to be more at ease than he was in 2023.
Minor league depth is lacking.
Before you panic, understand that this is to be anticipated. When you call up as many prospects as the Reds did last season, it depletes your prospect pool. Right now, in my perspective, there is no position player in Double or Triple-A that could come up and start, and I would anticipate ordinary to above-average performance as the floor.
Blake Dunn surely has a chance to assist this club at some time. However, he’s slicing .219/.336/.354 yields an 86 wRC+ across 115 plate appearances. His 29.6% strikeout percentage is greater than you’d want to see, and his power has decreased since last season. He did sustain an early season injury, which should be mentioned.
Peyton Burdick and Livan Soto are intriguing, but they have also bounced about on waivers and are not without risk. Will you give them a shot? Sure. But I don’t expect them to deliver constant offense.
That is not to suggest that this system is free of bats. The difficulty is that the most of the top prospects are either in Dayton or injured (Edwin Arroyo).
Elly De La Cruz can make your wildest dreams come true.
We understand the excitement around Elly as a talent, and we witnessed flashes and shortcomings throughout his rookie season. In year two, he made modifications and capitalized on potential, demonstrating his capacity to be a top player in the game.
Elly has reduced his strikeout % while increasing his walk rate, ISO, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage. Oh, and he’s stolen 25 bases in 40 games.
He’s making better contact, and when you have skill like his, it can impact the game. At only 22 years old, he still has space to develop. A 73% zone contact percentage and 33.2% whiff rate raise some concerns, but I believe he will continue to progress over time.
Elly has won some games for this team on his own, and I’m confident he will do so again this season. His very presence on the basepaths draws attention away from the hitter, yet stealing second and third is no problem.
The Reds are going to gamble on the bases.
The Reds constantly toe the line between aggressive and irresponsible baserunning. Personally, I want Elly to be as aggressive as he feels comfortable with. I’m sure he’ll make some mistakes, but if you add up the good and bad consequences, I’d say two-thirds will be favorable. Of course, there are limitations to every circumstance. Stealing third with no outs is a bit harder for me to justify. Single is likely to score him any way.
For better or worse, the Reds will push the boundaries. We witnessed a hit and run turn into a double play. We’ve seen people take the extra base pay off. Testing outfield arms is often a worthy risk. When your offense struggles, like the Reds have at times, making runs in other ways may be your best option.
Expectations for the remainder of the year
The magical start-to-finish first place fantasy was dashed when it became clear that three regulars would lose considerable time. You may say it was never in play, but I’ll allow myself to be a fan.
As we sit here now, with defeats stacking up, the Reds must start kicking before they sink. It’s been unpleasant, and the current roster of players is unlikely to improve much. The best bet is to check if you can be available.500 upon Marte’s return. Jeimer Candelario is improving, and Marte’s addition to the lineup helps.
The rotation is excellent enough to keep the squad from a downward spiral. I feel they can finish around.500 after this difficult stretch, but it will depend on where the Brewers and Cubs are when you seek to add at the deadline. Having to rely on the success of other teams is not an ideal strategy, but it is the reality of the situation.
A 1-9 stretch should be plenty to see what this club is capable of. Do they crumble? Is David Bell’s messaging outdated? What’s the atmosphere at the clubhouse? You either show some tenacity and turn things around, or we’ll hear about the Bengals preseason in July.
